The regular season went by in a blur, and we have finally reach conference championship weekend. There is still plenty to be decided in the national landscape for college football.UNLV and Boise State face one another in what is essentially a play-in game for the first iteration of the 12-team playoffs. Arizona State and Iowa State are in a similar situation, as they meet for the chance to represent the Big 12 in the College Football Playoff. We also have some fascinating quirks this weekend. Like a rematch from Week 14 between Western Kentucky and Jacksonville State, as well as a potential lookahead for Army which has Navy next weekend.
College Football Opening Lines Report
Friday, December 6th
AMERICAN ATHLETIC CHAMPIONSHIP GAMETulane Green Wave (-6, 46.5) @ Army Black Knights
Tulane essentially had its playoff hopes dashed on Thanksgiving when it lost to Memphis on Thanksgiving. The loss also snapped an 8-0 SU/7-1 ATS run for the Green Wave. Circa Sports opened the number at Tulane -6 but about 20 minutes late the number was down to -4 and that is where it stands as of Sunday morning. Army bounced back from its lopsided loss to Notre Dame with a win over UTSA, but the Black Knights failed to cover for the second straight game, and for the fourth time in five contests. It is also a fascinating scheduling spot for Army with the annual meeting with the Navy looming next week. Could you actually see a team looking past a conference championship for a rivalry game?
C-USA CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers @ Jacksonville State Gamecocks (-2, 57.5)
Western Kentucky needed a win over Jacksonville State at home on Saturday to make it to the C-USA title game. Now, they head to Jacksonville for a rematch on Friday. The Hilltoppers were catching a point at home last week. That line would indicate a difference of about four points on a neutral between these two teams, but Circa Sports opened with the Gamecocks installed as just two-point favorites. The betting market jumped on the number for Jacksonville State, and the consensus number is -4 as of Sunday afternoon. It should be noted that the Gamecocks had absolutely nothing to play for in that game on Saturday, which could have been reflected in the closing line. If that is the case, there is an argument to be made this number should be even higher.
MOUNTAIN WEST CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
UNLV Rebels @ Boise State Broncos (-6.5, 59.5)
UNLV comes into the Mountain West Championship on a very solid run. The Rebels are 4-0 SU/2-1-1 ATS in their last four games with a +58 point differential. As a result, we have seen the market clearly upgrade its rating of UNLV this week. Remember, when the Rebels hosted the Broncos earlier this season Boise State closed as a 3.5-point favorite. Circa Sports opened the Broncos as 6.5-point favorites for this contest, but those that shape the market pounced on the road team here and drove the number down to 3.5 consensus. Bettors will have to determine whether that upgrade is warranted, or if the home team is being offered at a cheap price here.
Saturday, December 7th
BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAMEArizona State Sun Devils (-1, 51) vs Iowa State Cyclones
The betting market loves this Arizona State team, and why not? The Sun Devils blew out their in-state rival on Saturday to finish the regular season 10-2 SU and ATS with a +10 spread differential. That kind of run is going to warrant market support, and we have seen that with the Big 12 Championship game. Iowa State has also been a slight disappointment at the window. It comes into this game 2-4 ATS in its last six games. Having said that, this is a massive role change for the Cyclones, as they closed as an underdog just once this season. That was on the road against Iowa back in September; a game which they won outright.
SEC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Georgia Bulldogs vs Texas Longhorns (-1, 48.5)
On Oct. 19 Georgia went into Austin and handed Texas a 30-15 loss; a result that is still the Longhorns’ lone blemish on the year. Despite the head-to-head result, the market is behind Texas in the SEC Championship. Circa Sports opened this line at Texas -1 but it moved to -2.5 quickly and it is a full field goal at multiple shops. When these two teams met at Texas, the Longhorns closed -4 across the board. That would put Texas as about a one-point favorite on a neutral. Fast forward to this week, and the Longhorns are laying a field goal on a neutral in Atlanta. This is a game very similar to the Mountain West Championship, in that bettors will have to determine whether the upgrade on the loser in the regular season meeting is warranted. It’s also similar to the Mountain West in terms of talent as well, if we’re being honest.
ACC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Clemson Tigers (-3, 53.5) vs SMU Mustangs
The betting market and oddsmakers have very different opinions on this contest. Circa Sports opened Clemson as a three-point favorite here, but as of Sunday morning SMU is laying 2.5 across the board. The move here is easy to understand. The Tigers lost to South Carolina on Saturday, and as a result their three-game winning streak ended. Clemson is 1-5 ATS in its last six games despite the win streak. It has failed to cover by eight points per game. That is not a team that should be laying a full field goal on a neutral against a quality opponent like SMU. As of Sunday, no shop has been at a full three-point spread yet, indicating 2.5 might be a solid ceiling for this line. Those who like Clemson will have to monitor the market closely, as it is unlikely a full three-point spread will be available for a long time.
BIG 10 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Penn State Nittany Lions vs Oregon Ducks (-3.5, 49.5)
Penn State and Oregon did not face one another this season, but they do have a common opponent in Ohio State. The Buckeyes faced both programs on the road, and closed as three-point favorites against both. That would indicate both the Ducks and Nittany Lions are near equals with one another on a neutral. However, Oregon beat Ohio State that night in Eugene, and it comes into this contest on a 5-2 ATS run over its last seven games. It isn’t inconceivable that the Ducks would be favored on a neutral over the Nittany Lions. We have not seen much movement from the opening number of 3.5 which indicates a lack of respected support for the underdog.
